3 graphs that show: We Are Not in a Post-Pandemic Real Estate Bubble

Between 2020 and 2022, real estate prices in the United States, especially in Florida, rose rapidly. For many, this has raised questions: are we in a new real estate bubble?

The answer, according to recent data, is no. The market is going through a healthy and necessary adjustmentBut the fundamentals remain solid.

In this article, you will see 3 updated graphics that explain why we are not in a post-pandemic real estate bubbleand how this impacts those looking to buy or invest in Florida.

1. The Price Hike Was Real - But It's Stabilizing

During the pandemic, several factors have boosted the value of real estate:

• Historically low interest rates

• Moving to the home office

• Migration to states with a better quality of life (such as Florida)

• Limited supply of houses for sale

This appreciation was real and reflected real demandnot a speculative bubble.

Source: Zillow and internal projections - The Florida Lounge
The graph shows the continuous increase in average house prices in Florida, with stabilization after the post-pandemic appreciation peak.

In 2023 and 2024, prices stopped rising at the same rate and, in some regions, there was a slight correction. Even so, the figures are still above pre-pandemic levels and with a tendency towards stability.

✅ Conclusion: The appreciation was strong, but based on legitimate fundamentals. There was no artificial price inflation as in past bubbles.

2. The Increase in Interest Rates Did Not Destabilize the Market

Starting in 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes to curb inflation. 30-year mortgages went from 3% to over 7%, which naturally slowed down the market.

Source: Freddie Mac / 2025 projection based on market trends - The Florida Lounge
The graph shows the impact of rising interest rates on American real estate financing after 2022.

Even so:

• Defaults remain low

• Most buyers made a significant down payment

• Many properties were bought for cash, especially by investors and foreigners

✅ Conclusion: Despite the impact of interest rates on new purchases, there was no increase in foreclosures or price collapse. The market adjusted without collapsing.

3. There's Still a Shortage of Stock, and That's Holding Down Prices

One of the main characteristics of a bubble is oversupply. In the current scenario, the opposite is true: no house to sell.

Source: Realtor.com and internal estimates - The Florida Lounge
The graph shows that the inventory of homes in Florida remains below the market equilibrium, which sustains prices even as interest rates rise.

Data from Orlando, Miami and Tampa show that the level of stock is below the historical averageThis sustains prices even with a lower volume of transactions.

In addition, the pace of construction is still not keeping up with demand, especially in desirable areas of Florida.

✅ Conclusion: The shortage of supply continues to be the main factor putting pressure on prices, and a clear sign that we're not in a real estate bubble.

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